Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 16.756046 19.530130 22.571885 26.148060 30.230545 34.738603 40.086382
2024-10-13 12.653801 16.551553 21.275914 27.390340 35.057315 44.312763 56.287461
2024-10-20 9.549754 13.713643 19.182245 26.815750 37.108008 50.403710 68.760579
2024-10-27 7.265062 11.312958 17.008817 25.485698 37.629544 54.218353 78.367082
2024-11-03 6.463313 10.759809 17.156395 27.182390 42.258566 63.782668 96.441972
2024-11-10 5.961874 10.528743 17.673036 29.386799 47.750992 74.975624 117.759772
2024-11-17 5.148417 9.638051 17.011097 29.640875 50.252901 81.929768 133.396523
2024-11-24 4.367730 8.653196 16.028796 29.203437 51.540162 87.050773 146.572041
2024-12-01 3.661253 7.667818 14.885605 28.310660 51.918500 90.679109 157.589314
2024-12-08 3.194783 7.043814 14.275229 28.231446 53.598432 96.472148 172.457445
2024-12-15 2.836624 6.566960 13.858762 28.426786 55.733086 103.138126 189.214463
2024-12-22 2.324234 5.679604 12.530959 26.746204 54.295591 103.524853 195.266931
2024-12-29 2.113403 5.428135 12.472367 27.598492 57.809627 113.212930 218.883498
2025-01-05 1.968998 5.307167 12.679351 29.038153 62.659680 125.845501 249.016831
2025-01-12 1.680143 4.786250 11.953328 28.459109 63.491516 131.155254 266.294529
2025-01-19 1.381416 4.172514 10.916231 27.060360 62.484699 132.858115 276.941707
2025-01-26 1.325562 4.178656 11.306357 28.852641 68.282078 148.197477 314.722801
2025-02-02 1.301248 4.265893 11.901344 31.179289 75.441417 166.781356 360.135829
2025-02-09 1.168558 4.017772 11.631227 31.447420 78.130184 176.552544 388.831401
2025-02-16 1.018920 3.684634 11.089431 30.985870 79.127962 182.904154 411.086772
2025-02-23 0.870392 3.317715 10.394687 30.043757 78.906287 186.642055 428.207793
2025-03-02 0.774215 3.095695 10.056721 29.960158 80.677418 194.766416 455.035909
2025-03-09 0.699314 2.927015 9.841027 30.166309 83.159080 204.622698 486.215067